Frontier Market Observatoryby QuantixMind

Themes

Frontier market themes

Six themes that frontier space markets are discussed in, each defined by a printed rule: a list of product and service codes and a list of keywords matched in the contract description field.

The keyword method finds actions whose description uses a phrase, not actions that do the thing. It misses work described only by program names, and it catches research that mentions a term in passing. A modification whose own description lacks the keyword sits outside the theme. Themes overlap. Read theme dollars as indicative, not as market sizes.

Earth observation and remote sensing

Rule
No product code isolates this theme, so it rests on keywords alone; or a description containing one of the keywords below as whole words.
Space only
$4.56B obligated over 10,830 actions. 90.1% of new awards were competed.
Full scope
$6.30B obligated over 11,415 actions. 7.9% of competed awards drew one offer.
Newer firms
12.9% of space only competed awards, FY2021 to FY2026.

Keywords

  • EARTH OBSERVATION
  • EARTH OBSERVING
  • REMOTE SENSING
  • LANDSAT
  • IMAGERY
  • HYPERSPECTRAL
  • MULTISPECTRAL
  • SYNTHETIC APERTURE RADAR
  • JPSS
  • GOES R
  • GEOSTATIONARY OPERATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL
  • WEATHER SATELLITE
  • SENTINEL 6

Space only by fiscal year

FYObligatedNew awardsCompetedSingle offerNewer firm
FY2016$0.96B31492.4%0.0%n/a
FY2017$0.97B35893.6%0.0%n/a
FY2018$0.74B33387.4%2.4%n/a
FY2019$0.46B19885.4%0.0%n/a
FY2020$0.33B10896.3%0.0%n/a
FY2021$0.39B1090.0%0.0%22.2%
FY2022$0.13B887.5%100.0%0.0%
FY2023$0.23B1181.8%n/a11.1%
FY2024$0.15B450.0%100.0%0.0%
FY2025$0.12B633.3%n/a0.0%
FY2026$0.09B450.0%100.0%50.0%
Full scope by fiscal year
FYObligatedNew awardsCompeted
FY2016$1.33B32492.0%
FY2017$1.29B36692.1%
FY2018$1.11B33687.2%
FY2019$0.72B20084.5%
FY2020$0.54B11194.6%
FY2021$0.46B1384.6%
FY2022$0.14B1275.0%
FY2023$0.29B1580.0%
FY2024$0.18B540.0%
FY2025$0.14B1030.0%
FY2026$0.12B850.0%

Satellite communications and constellations

Rule
Product and service codes DG11, 7G22; or a description containing one of the keywords below as whole words.
Space only
$1.20B obligated over 1,323 actions. 87.1% of new awards were competed.
Full scope
$11.16B obligated over 32,186 actions. 23.9% of competed awards drew one offer.
Newer firms
38.5% of space only competed awards, FY2021 to FY2026.

Keywords

  • SATCOM
  • SATELLITE COMMUNICATION
  • SATELLITE COMMUNICATIONS
  • SATELLITE TELECOMMUNICATIONS
  • SATELLITE SERVICES
  • CONSTELLATION
  • STARLINK
  • STARSHIELD
  • IRIDIUM
  • INMARSAT
  • TRANSPONDER
  • PROLIFERATED
  • MUOS
  • AEHF
  • WIDEBAND GLOBAL

Space only by fiscal year

FYObligatedNew awardsCompetedSingle offerNewer firm
FY2016$0.32B4290.5%0.0%n/a
FY2017$0.35B38100.0%0.0%n/a
FY2018$0.15B3585.7%9.1%n/a
FY2019$0.10B2885.7%0.0%n/a
FY2020$0.04B771.4%0.0%n/a
FY2021$0.00B10.0%n/an/a
FY2022$0.01B875.0%20.0%16.7%
FY2023$0.02B771.4%33.3%40.0%
FY2024$0.06B1100.0%100.0%100.0%
FY2025$0.08B1100.0%n/a100.0%
FY2026$0.07B20.0%n/an/a
Full scope by fiscal year
FYObligatedNew awardsCompeted
FY2016$0.44B79694.2%
FY2017$0.55B1,36396.6%
FY2018$0.35B1,41093.0%
FY2019$0.67B1,00392.6%
FY2020$0.64B27171.0%
FY2021$0.75B56857.1%
FY2022$1.13B1,79888.2%
FY2023$1.35B1,20780.3%
FY2024$1.86B2,06478.8%
FY2025$1.64B1,26767.9%
FY2026$1.78B93858.8%

Launch and in space transportation

Rule
Product and service codes 1840, V126; or a description containing one of the keywords below as whole words.
Space only
$23.25B obligated over 3,917 actions. 74.1% of new awards were competed.
Full scope
$35.50B obligated over 5,531 actions. 2.5% of competed awards drew one offer.
Newer firms
38.5% of space only competed awards, FY2021 to FY2026.

Keywords

  • LAUNCH SERVICE
  • LAUNCH SERVICES
  • LAUNCH VEHICLE
  • LAUNCH VEHICLES
  • NSSL
  • EELV
  • CARGO RESUPPLY
  • COMMERCIAL RESUPPLY
  • CREW TRANSPORTATION
  • COMMERCIAL CREW
  • LUNAR LANDER
  • HUMAN LANDING SYSTEM
  • ORBITAL TRANSFER
  • SPACE TRANSPORTATION
  • SPACE LAUNCH SYSTEM

Space only by fiscal year

FYObligatedNew awardsCompetedSingle offerNewer firm
FY2016$1.25B5678.6%0.0%n/a
FY2017$1.28B5088.0%0.0%n/a
FY2018$1.41B4290.5%4.5%n/a
FY2019$1.77B3378.8%0.0%n/a
FY2020$2.28B2864.3%0.0%n/a
FY2021$2.66B1361.5%14.3%37.5%
FY2022$2.49B40.0%n/an/a
FY2023$2.82B837.5%0.0%33.3%
FY2024$2.75B540.0%0.0%50.0%
FY2025$2.42B30.0%n/an/a
FY2026$2.12B50.0%n/an/a
Full scope by fiscal year
FYObligatedNew awardsCompeted
FY2016$2.98B7081.4%
FY2017$2.79B6085.0%
FY2018$2.78B4791.5%
FY2019$2.46B3580.0%
FY2020$2.93B2864.3%
FY2021$3.51B1770.6%
FY2022$3.40B40.0%
FY2023$3.73B1258.3%
FY2024$3.78B757.1%
FY2025$3.87B1782.4%
FY2026$3.27B1154.5%

In space manufacturing and servicing

Rule
Product and service codes 1850; or a description containing one of the keywords below as whole words.
Space only
$0.06B obligated over 276 actions. 85.9% of new awards were competed.
Full scope
$0.23B obligated over 364 actions. 4.9% of competed awards drew one offer.
Newer firms
37.5% of space only competed awards, FY2021 to FY2026.

Keywords

  • IN SPACE MANUFACTURING
  • IN SPACE ASSEMBLY
  • ON ORBIT SERVICING
  • ON ORBIT ASSEMBLY
  • SATELLITE SERVICING
  • OSAM
  • ROBOTIC REFUELING
  • MICROGRAVITY MANUFACTURING
  • RESTORE L
  • ORBITAL DEBRIS REMOVAL

Space only by fiscal year

FYObligatedNew awardsCompetedSingle offerNewer firm
FY2016$0.00B887.5%0.0%n/a
FY2017$0.01B10100.0%0.0%n/a
FY2018$0.00B14100.0%8.3%n/a
FY2019$0.03B1080.0%0.0%n/a
FY2020$0.01B1172.7%14.3%n/a
FY2021$0.00B666.7%0.0%75.0%
FY2022$0.00B475.0%n/a0.0%
FY2023$0.00B1100.0%n/a0.0%
FY2024$0.00B0n/an/an/a
FY2025$0.00B0n/an/an/a
FY2026$0.00B0n/an/an/a
Full scope by fiscal year
FYObligatedNew awardsCompeted
FY2016$0.01B977.8%
FY2017$0.03B11100.0%
FY2018$0.03B14100.0%
FY2019$0.08B1080.0%
FY2020$0.01B1172.7%
FY2021$0.01B666.7%
FY2022$0.01B475.0%
FY2023$0.01B1100.0%
FY2024$0.03B10.0%
FY2025$0.00B0n/a
FY2026$0.00B0n/a

Space energy and power

Rule
No product code isolates this theme, so it rests on keywords alone; or a description containing one of the keywords below as whole words.
Space only
$0.44B obligated over 1,130 actions. 88.4% of new awards were competed.
Full scope
$0.44B obligated over 1,137 actions. 5.3% of competed awards drew one offer.
Newer firms
36.4% of space only competed awards, FY2021 to FY2026.

Keywords

  • SOLAR ARRAY
  • SOLAR ARRAYS
  • SPACE SOLAR
  • SPACE POWER
  • FISSION SURFACE POWER
  • RADIOISOTOPE
  • MMRTG
  • NUCLEAR THERMAL PROPULSION
  • POWER BEAMING
  • SOLAR ELECTRIC PROPULSION

Space only by fiscal year

FYObligatedNew awardsCompetedSingle offerNewer firm
FY2016$0.05B5398.1%2.7%n/a
FY2017$0.02B4597.8%6.1%n/a
FY2018$0.02B4588.9%4.0%n/a
FY2019$0.05B2382.6%0.0%n/a
FY2020$0.07B2788.9%0.0%n/a
FY2021$0.04B757.1%0.0%25.0%
FY2022$0.06B366.7%0.0%50.0%
FY2023$0.04B333.3%n/a0.0%
FY2024$0.04B666.7%25.0%50.0%
FY2025$0.03B10.0%n/an/a
FY2026$0.01B20.0%n/an/a
Full scope by fiscal year
FYObligatedNew awardsCompeted
FY2016$0.05B5398.1%
FY2017$0.02B4597.8%
FY2018$0.02B4588.9%
FY2019$0.05B2680.8%
FY2020$0.07B2788.9%
FY2021$0.04B757.1%
FY2022$0.06B475.0%
FY2023$0.04B333.3%
FY2024$0.04B666.7%
FY2025$0.03B10.0%
FY2026$0.01B20.0%

Ground segment and data

Rule
Product and service codes 1830, AR41, AR42, AR43, AR44, AR45, AR46, AR47; or a description containing one of the keywords below as whole words.
Space only
$18.07B obligated over 12,121 actions. 21.5% of new awards were competed.
Full scope
$19.55B obligated over 13,320 actions. 29.5% of competed awards drew one offer.
Newer firms
0.0% of space only competed awards, FY2021 to FY2026.

Keywords

  • GROUND STATION
  • GROUND STATIONS
  • GROUND SEGMENT
  • GROUND SYSTEM
  • GROUND SYSTEMS
  • TELEMETRY
  • TRACKING AND DATA
  • DEEP SPACE NETWORK
  • NEAR SPACE NETWORK
  • SATELLITE CONTROL NETWORK
  • SATELLITE OPERATIONS
  • MISSION OPERATIONS CENTER

Space only by fiscal year

FYObligatedNew awardsCompetedSingle offerNewer firm
FY2016$3.41B10730.8%5.6%n/a
FY2017$3.54B9926.3%9.1%n/a
FY2018$3.52B21211.3%33.3%n/a
FY2019$2.48B6628.8%0.0%n/a
FY2020$1.12B2729.6%n/an/a
FY2021$0.87B333.3%0.0%0.0%
FY2022$1.00B40.0%n/an/a
FY2023$0.55B333.3%0.0%0.0%
FY2024$0.47B0n/an/an/a
FY2025$0.60B0n/an/an/a
FY2026$0.50B0n/an/an/a
Full scope by fiscal year
FYObligatedNew awardsCompeted
FY2016$3.47B13538.5%
FY2017$3.64B12433.1%
FY2018$3.63B24017.1%
FY2019$2.65B8834.1%
FY2020$1.27B5223.1%
FY2021$1.06B3826.3%
FY2022$1.12B2921.4%
FY2023$0.66B2222.7%
FY2024$0.60B2619.2%
FY2025$0.74B3638.9%
FY2026$0.70B728.6%