Frontier Market Observatoryby QuantixMind

Module one

Federal demand

Every metric by fiscal year (the federal year, October to September), FY2016 to FY2026, from every unclassified contract action reported to FPDS, the Federal Procurement Data System, under the codes studied. Other transaction agreements (OTAs), classified awards and grants are not in FPDS, so no figure here includes them.

A launch pad tower in silhouette against the rising sun, seen from behind a fence line.Photograph: NASA

Space only: contract actions for space vehicles (PSC 18) or space research and development (PSC AR), whatever their industry code. The full study scope adds every action under the industry codes studied, which include missiles and communications equipment.

Space only, FY2016 to FY2026

147,543
Contract actions
Of these, 17,372 are new awards.
$125.90B
Obligated, FY2016 to FY2026
$115.53B was obligated in the closed years to FY2025.
79.5%
Competed share of new awards
Share of 17,364 new awards that report competition.
9.9%
Single offer share
Share of 4,328 competed awards with an offer count.
88.9%
Top agency share
Among agencies with positive net obligations, over 147,543 contract actions.
99.7%
Top three agencies share
Same denominator, over 147,543 contract actions.
8,009
Buyer HHI
The scale runs from 0 to 10000.
27.9%
Newer firm share, FY2021 to FY2026 (upper bound)
Share of 1,588 competed awards.

FY2026 closed on 30 September but was pulled on 2026-10-14, before the Department of Defense (DoD) reporting lag of up to 90 days had passed, so DoD actions late in the year are missing. It is drawn dashed or shaded, and all year totals include it as pulled.

New award counts fall sharply from FY2021. We have not established whether this reflects buying behaviour or a change in how agencies record orders, so read award based shares after FY2020 with that in mind. Shares resting on fewer than 100 awards are set in grey italic in the tables.

Dollars are nominal: not adjusted for inflation, so flat nominal values over these years are a real decline.

Metrics

Terms used here

Obligation
A binding commitment of federal money on a contract action. Net obligations subtract money taken back (deobligations).
NAICS
North American Industry Classification System: the industry code on a contract.
PSC
Product and service code: what was bought. Code 18 is space vehicles; AR is space research and development.
IDV
Indefinite delivery vehicle: an umbrella contract that agencies place orders under.
HHI
Herfindahl Hirschman index, a score for how concentrated buying is, from 0 to 10000. A high score means a few agencies place most of the money.
OTA
Other transaction agreement: a flexible agreement outside the standard contract rules. OTAs are not reported to FPDS.

Top buyer by fiscal year

The contracting sub tier agency with the largest positive net obligations in each year.

Scope note. Full study scope: every action under the industry codes studied, plus the space product codes. It is not a space series. NAICS 336414 (guided missile and space vehicle manufacturing) includes missile programs such as Javelin; 334220 (radio and wireless equipment) and 517410 (satellite telecommunications) carry much spending that is not space. Use the space only view for space claims. Other transaction agreements (OTAs), classified awards and grants are not in FPDS, so no figure here includes them. See Methods.